President Barack Obama meets with Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping, February, 14, 2012, in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington.

CHINA

China and East Asian Democracy: The Coming Wave. Larry Diamond. Current History, January 2012, pp. 5-13. ”If there is going to be a great advance of democracy in this decade, it is most likely going to emanate from East Asia.” READ MORE

China's Century? Why America's Edge Will Endure. Michael Beckley, International Security, Winter 2011/12, pp. 41–78. “Two assumptions dominate current foreign policy debates in the United States and China. First, the United States is in decline relative to China. Second, much of this decline is the result of globalization and the hegemonic burdens the United States bears to sustain globalization. Both of these assumptions are wrong. The United States is not in decline; in fact, it is now wealthier, more innovative, and more militarily powerful compared to China than it was in 1991. Moreover, globalization and hegemony do not erode U.S. power; they reinforce it. The United States derives competitive advantages from its hegemonic position, and globalization allows it to exploit these advantages, attracting economic activity and manipulating the international system to its benefit. The United States should therefore continue to prop up the global economy and maintain a robust diplomatic and military presence abroad.” READ MORE

Confronting A Powerful China With Western Characteristics. James Kurth, Orbis, Winter 2012, pp. 39–59. “The rapid rise of Chinese economic and military power has produced the most fundamental change in the global system since the end of the Cold War, and it poses vital questions about China's future direction. Many Western analysts argue that China's great power will cause it to become more like the West, i.e., like Western great powers. Other Western analysts believe that China will continue to be the same, i.e., like the China of the past few decades. An alternative interpretation, however, is that China's new power will enable it to become even more Chinese than it is now, i.e., to become more like the traditional and imperial China that existed before the Western intrusions of the 19th century.” READ MORE

The Patterns of History. Francis Fukuyama, Current History, January 2012, pp. 14-26. “The legitimacy and appeal of democracy in East Asia will depend on how democratic countries in the region stack up against China.” READ MORE

Cooperation and Conflict in the U.S.-China Petroleum Relationship. Jonathan Chanis, American Foreign Policy Interests, 1 November 2011, pp. 286-292. “Current U.S. and Chinese petroleum import dependence differ sharply, and the respective vulnerability of each state to future supply disruptions should further strengthen the U.S. power position and weaken China's power position. In an effort to minimize present and future petroleum vulnerability, China has been pursuing neo-mercantilist policies and favoring relations with states hostile to the United States. These polices continually place China in conflict with the United States, particularly since they challenge the international petroleum security and trading regime that largely was built by, and is currently supported by, the United States. While in the past, the United States and China have formally discussed “energy security,“ these meetings tend to avoid the real points of difficulty in each country's pursuit of petroleum supply security.” READ MORE

IRAN/IRAQ

Iran’s Declining Influence in Iraq. Babak Rahimi, The Washington Quarterly, Winter 2012, pp. 25-40. “Iran’s influence over Iraq has less to do with the formation of a Shi‘a alliance than with Tehran’s ability to manage Iraq’s internal divisions. In part because of post-2009 Iranian and post-2010 Iraqi politics, Tehran has to date failed to orchestrate these intricacies in its favor.” READ MORE

Containing Iran's Missile Threat. Michael Elleman, Survival, February-March 2012, pp. 119-126. “The breathing space offered by a regional flight-test ban could facilitate cooperation on missile defences and the building of greater trust and confidence between Moscow and Washington.”
After Iraq: The Trigger Doctrine. David McKean, Survival, February-March 2012, pp. 159-174. “An unfounded rush to war is often precipitated by events. The president, Congress, the press and the public would benefit from a benchmark against which to measure the advisability of a military response.” READ MORE

EU ISSUES

Centrifugal Europe. Charles A. Kupchan, Survival, February-March 2012, pp. 111-118. “The project of European integration is experiencing its gravest political crisis to date. Ongoing debate about how to restore the financial stability of the eurozone has exposed deep rifts within the EU, calling into question the solidarity that is the hallmark of political union. At stake is the survival not just of the euro, but the EU itself. The EU’s debt crisis poses a particularly potent threat to the project of European integration because it is both a consequence and a cause of a more serious malady: the renationalisation of European politics. Confronted with the powerful intrusions of both European integration and globalisation, electorates in EU member states have for the better part of a decade staged a mounting revolt against Brussels and its supranational brand of governance. Unwanted immigration, growing inequality, fraying welfare states, stagnant wages, bailout and austerity packages – these developments have produced a wave of popular discontent, which is in turn exacting a heavy toll on the EU as angry voters press for the repatriation of political control and the restoration of national autonomy.” READ MORE

Europe Must Enhance Defense Integration to Avoid Strategic Decline. Erik Brattberg, World Politics Review, 27 Jan 2012, var. pages. “New figures from the European Defense Agency (EDA) confirm what is already well-known: The gap between what Europe and America spend on defense is only growing wider, despite perennial calls from Washington for Europe to share a bigger part of the military burden.” READ MORE

The Eurozone Debt Crisis: Prospects for Europe, China, and the United States. Dan Steinbock, American Foreign Policy Interests, January 2012, pp. 34-42.  “In the aftermath of fall 2008, the global financial crisis was often characterized as the most severe since the Great Depression. After hopes for a quick rebound proved futile, the consensus began to expect that the recovery might take longer than originally anticipated. The challenges of the Eurozone suggest that overcoming the global economic crisis is likely to take more than half a decade, with no return to “business as usual.” Europe suffers from a multitude of economic crises—caused, for the most part, by front-loaded austerity measures and inadequate fiscal support, exhausted traditional monetary instruments, toxic assets in the European Central Bank, insolvency and liquidity challenges, and lack of pro-growth policies. These are complicated, in turn, by fragmented political decision making and institutional flaws in the integration process. The deterioration of the Eurozone has often cast China as a potential savior. For its part, China, along with the other BRIC (Brazil, Russia, and India) nations, would like to support an important trade partner and source of technology and foreign direct investment, but conditionally. As a result, Europe—with the current or realigned Eurozone—is heading toward a reset, which will inevitably affect U.S. strategic interests. Throughout the postwar era, U.S. interests were coupled with those of Europe in the transatlantic economy. The severity of the current economic crises and the complexity of political decision making in the Eurozone make ruling out “catastrophic risk” impossible in strategic considerations.” READ MORE

A Transatlantic Free Trade Area – A Boost to Economic Growth? Daniel S. Hamilton and Pedro Schwartz, TAP, January 2012, var. pages. “European leaders continue to squabble about efforts needed to end the euro crisis, but they have coalesced around calls in late January 2012 by German Chancellor Merkel, French President Sarkozy and British Prime Minister Cameron to open transatlantic markets. US President Obama has also endorsed the bid. At the US-EU Summit last fall, leaders created a bilateral High Level Working Group on Jobs and Growth to consider the full range of measures that could be taken to deepen and expand the transatlantic economic relationship. The benefits could be substantial in terms of creating jobs, boosting innovation, improving our competitiveness, and ensuring long-term growth and prosperity. It is a moment of opportunity – to use or to lose. To win the moment, business and other economic stakeholders must unite with political leaders on both sides of the Atlantic to advance a shared vision, built on underlying values, to harness the potential of our partnership to create jobs, stimulate growth, and strengthen the multilateral system.”
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NATO

NATO's Victory in Libya. The Right Way to Run an Intervention. By Ivo H. Daalder and James G. Stavridis, Foreign Affairs, February 2, 2012, var. pp. “NATO's operation in Libya has rightly been hailed as a model intervention. The alliance responded rapidly to a deteriorating situation that threatened hundreds of thousands of civilians rebelling against an oppressive regime. It succeeded in protecting those civilians and, ultimately, in providing the time and space necessary for local forces to overthrow Muammar al-Qaddafi. And it did so by involving partners in the region and sharing the burden among the alliance's members. NATO's involvement in Libya demonstrated that the alliance remains an essential source of stability. But to preserve that role, NATO must solidify the political cohesion and shared capabilities that made the operation in Libya possible -- particularly as its leaders prepare for the upcoming NATO summit in Chicago this May.” READ MORE

NATO and Emerging Security Challenges: Beyond the Deterrence Paradigm. Michael Rühle, American Foreign Policy Interests, November 2011 , pp. 278-282. “New security challenges, ranging from cyberattacks to failing states, cannot be deterred by the threat of military retaliation, nor will military operations be the appropriate response in most cases. Instead, the emphasis must be on prevention and enhancing resilience. If the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) wants to play a meaningful role in addressing such challenges, it will have to develop a clearer understanding of the nature of these challenges, build closer ties with other nations and institutions, and seek partnerships with the private sector. Above all, allies will have to use NATO as a forum for discussing emerging security challenges and their implications.” READ MORE

Toward a New Transatlantic Bargain. Karl-Heinz Kamp and Kurt Volker, February 1, 2012, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, var. pp. “The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is often described as the most successful military alliance in history. In addition to longevity, those characterizing NATO this way are usually thinking of the Alliance’s role in protecting freedom and guaranteeing peace in Europe against a hostile Soviet Union, right up until the Iron Curtain fell. NATO’s role in ending ethnic cleansing in the Balkans, and in helping to reintegrate Central and Eastern Europe into the mainstream of the continent, only added to this positive image of the Alliance. For NATO to hold together all this time—even amid such monumental challenges as the Suez crisis, the Hungarian revolution, the Prague Spring, Vietnam, Pershing missiles, and Kosovo—it is clear that allies maintained an underlying commitment to each other and to the cause of an alliance greater than the sum of its parts. The recognition that each side of the Atlantic was willing to sacrifice a bit to the other for the benefit of the whole is what is meant by the concept of a “transatlantic bargain.” For decades, this transatlantic bargain—though predominantly unstated and uncodified—was instinctively understood and acted upon. In more recent years, this transatlantic bond has been sorely tested, over the war in Iraq, over different perceptions of Russia, of missile defense, of terrorism, and even over differing interpretations of relations with Georgia and Ukraine. Whether or how NATO survives the severity of these tests still remains to be seen. NATO will surely come out best, however, if there is a renewed commitment on both sides of the Atlantic to some of the fundamentals of the Alliance that are important to both sides—a renewal of the transatlantic bargain.” READ MORE

CLIMATE & ENERGY

The Arctic Is Now: Economic and National Security in the Last Frontier. Melissa Bert, American Foreign Policy Interests, January 2012, pp. 5-19. “With an estimated 30 billion barrels of oil, 220 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, rare earth minerals, and massive renewable wind, tidal, and geothermal energy resources, the economic potential of the Alaskan Arctic can be measured in the trillions of dollars. Although the other Arctic nations are parties to the Law of the Sea Convention and are already developing their nations’ Arctic resources, the United States has failed to ratify the convention or develop a plan for the region. Now is the time for the Obama administration to advance a comprehensive Arctic strategy that addresses both governance and acquisition requirements, or it risks further harm to the nation's economic and national security.” READ MORE

Geopolitics and the Northern Sea Route. Margaret Blunden, International Affairs, January 2012, pp. 115-129. “Experimental transit voyages along the Northern Sea Route to the north of Russia are breaking new ground each year and the route is already significant for the export of raw materials from Russian ports. National and corporate interests are now driving Russia's Arctic policy, rather than, as formerly, an exclusive focus on security, and the Russian government has ambitious plans for the development of the route. Future regular transit of the Northern Sea Route between Europe and Asia, at present facing serious obstacles, could be accelerated not only by climate change, but by overload on, or interruptions to, the existing route through the Suez Canal, which passes through some of the world's most volatile regions. Despite the formidable impediments to regular year round transit of the Northern Sea Route, governments of the non-Arctic states with most at stake, particularly Germany and China, appear to be taking no chances, and to be jockeying for influence in the Arctic region. The interests of the non-Arctic trading states, and of the European Union, more inclined to view the Arctic Ocean as part of the ‘common heritage of mankind’, are however potentially different from those of Russia, and indeed of Canada in respect of the North East passage, both determined to maintain their exclusive national jurisdiction over emerging sea lanes through their territorial waters. Great issues are at stake here. The emergence of new sea lanes has historically impacted heavily on the international balance of power. Where the merchant fleets go, navies will shortly follow.”  READ MORE

Power paradox: Clean might not be green forever. Anil Ananthaswamy and Michael Le Page, New Scientist, 30 January 2012, var. pp.  “As energy demand grows, even alternative energy sources such as wind, solar and nuclear fusion could begin to affect the climate Editorial: "Taking the long view on the world's energy supplies" "A better, richer and happier life for all our citizens." That's the American dream. In practice, it means living in a spacious, air-conditioned house, owning a car or three and maybe a boat or a holiday home, not to mention flying off to exotic destinations. The trouble with this lifestyle is that it consumes a lot of power. If everyone in the world started living like wealthy Americans, we'd need to generate more than 10 times as much energy each year. And if, in a century or three, we all expect to be looked after by an army of robots and zoom up into space on holidays, we are going to need a vast amount more. Where are we going to get so much power from? It is clear that continuing to rely on fossil fuels will have catastrophic results, because of the dramatic warming effect of carbon dioxide. But alternative power sources will affect the climate too. For now, the climatic effects of "clean energy" sources are trivial compared with those that spew out greenhouse gases, but if we keep on using ever more power over the coming centuries, they will become ever more significant. While this kind of work is still at an early stage, some startling conclusions are already beginning to emerge. Nuclear power - including fusion - is not the long-term answer to our energy problems. Even renewable energies such as wind power will have to be used with caution, because large-scale extraction could have both local and global effects. These effects are not necessarily a bad thing, though. We might be able to exploit them to geoengineer the climate and combat global warming.” READ MORE

DEFENSE

Does Missile Defence in Europe Threaten Russia? Dean A. Wilkening, Survival, February-March 2012, pp. 31-52. “For decades, Russian leaders have expressed concern over American ballistic-missile defence programmes. Early US and Soviet attempts in the 1960s were curtailed by the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty of 1972. US proponents of missile defence decried the treaty as an attempt by the Soviet Union to overcome what those proponents believed was America’s lead in BMD technology. Russian embrace of the idea that defences upset strategic stability, the central paradigm of the treaty, was suspect because the Soviet Union spent inordinate sums developing strategic air and civil defences, reflecting its conviction that limiting damage from a hypothetical nuclear attack was a worthwhile, if not achievable, goal.” READ MORE

The Struggle for Value in European Defence. Bastian Giegerich and Alexander Nicoll, Survival, February-March 2012, pp. 53-82.  “After decades of trying, Europe still does not get the best value out of the substantial amounts it spends on defence. The experience of the past 20 years suggests that European countries will continue to need to deploy forces in a wide range of operations for a wide range of tasks. Yet defence spending is in a decline that is unlikely to be reversed unless there is a major strategic shock. These two facts suggest that Europe’s armed forces will be increasingly squeezed and forced to look for new solutions. They have been under pressure for some time to deliver more eff ective capabilities with smaller resources, but cuts in spending necessitated by budgetary austerity suggest that these pressures could become acute. European countries can still have strong, and more eff ective, militaries, but to do so they must make bett er use of their fi nancial resources.” READ MORE

US Issues

Presidential Election: Can Obama withstand the Republican challenge? Bob Benenson, The CQ Researcher, February 3, 2012 , pp. 101-124. “The 2012 contest pitting President Obama against a yet-to-be-determined Republican challenger ranks as one of the most intriguing presidential campaigns in history. Two powerful populist factions — the conservative Tea Party movement and Occupy Wall Street protest against income inequality — are helping to shape campaign ideologies and stump speeches. An unusually large field of Republican candidates, including multimillionaire Mormon Mitt Romney and thrice-married Newt Gingrich, have fought each other as aggressively as they have Obama, leaving the GOP so fractured that some think a nominee won't emerge until the party convention in August. Meanwhile, following a controversial Supreme Court ruling on campaign finance, wealthy donors are pouring millions of dollars into TV attack ads through so-called SuperPACs. And overshadowing the entire spectacle is the shaky U.S. economy and the question of which candidate is best equipped to turn it around.” READ MORE

Obama, Explained. James Fallows, The Atlantic, March 2012, var. pp. “As Barack Obama contends for a second term in office, two conflicting narratives of his presidency have emerged. Is he a skillful political player and policy visionary—a chess master who always sees several moves ahead of his opponents (and of the punditocracy)? Or is he politically clumsy and out of his depth—a pawn overwhelmed by events, at the mercy of a second-rate staff and of the Republicans? Here, a longtime analyst of the presidency takes the measure of our 44th president, with a view to history.”
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Financial Misconduct: Is government action tough enough? Kenneth Jost, The CQ Researcher, January 20, 2012, pp. 53-76. “The United States is slowly coming out of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, but many Americans want tougher law enforcement against the companies and executives they say created the mess. Four years after the crisis began, no prominent financial executives have been prosecuted. Civil charges were brought against major banks for misleading investors by packaging subprime mortgages with insufficient disclosure, but a federal judge recently rejected a proposed settlement as too lenient. Meanwhile, major mortgage lenders are negotiating a potential multibillion-dollar settlement over allegations of improper home foreclosures. Some states, however, are balking at banks' request for protection from subsequent lawsuits. Many experts say the government has failed to devote adequate resources to prosecuting wrongdoers. But some also acknowledge that certain activities that triggered the crisis were not necessarily illegal.” READ MORE

Making the Housing Market Work Again. Christopher Papagianis and Arpit Gupta, Policy Review, February 2012, var. pages.  “Trends in the housing sector have been a driving force behind the recent financial crisis and associated recession. According to the Case-Shiller/s&p Indices, housing prices fell over 30 percent from the height of the housing bubble to August 2011 across a twenty-city composite, with prices in some markets down by nearly 60 percent. This plunge in housing prices was accompanied by a wave of household defaults and foreclosures, which has led to millions of property owners losing their homes over the last three years. The foreclosure crisis hit hardest in areas that had the largest bubbles, notably parts of Arizona, California, Florida, and Nevada.” READ MORE

Diversity within Reach: Recruitment versus Hiring in Elite Firms. Lauren A. Rivera, The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, January 2012, pp. 71-90. “Despite the popularity of diversity management, there is little consensus on how to design diversity practices that work. In this article, the author provides an inside look into one type of diversity practice: diversity recruitment. Drawing on qualitative evidence from hiring in elite law firms, investment banks, and management consulting firms, the author analyzes what diversity recruitment looks like in these firms in theory and in practice. The author finds that although these firms tend to have the ingredients for success on paper, in practice the presence of structural and status divides between those responsible for overseeing diversity recruitment and those making hiring decisions, alongside widespread cultural beliefs among decision-makers that diversity is not a valid criterion of evaluation, stymies firms’ efforts to diversify. The author’s findings highlight that to be successful in translating diversity programs into results, those charged with overseeing diversity programs need not only formal organizational authority but also sufficient informal power and status to wield influence.” READ MORE