U.S. Humanitarian Aid Reaching Syria and Neighboring Countries. AP Photo

Arab Spring Aftermath

Arab Fall or Arab Winter? Howard J. Wiarda, American Foreign Policy Interests, Spring 2012, pp. 134-137. "Criticizing the concept of an “Arab Spring,” the author is pessimistic about democracy and development in the Arab countries that have recently overthrown authoritarian leaders. Overthrowing a dictatorship is much easier than building a functioning democracy and a stable society to replace it. Few of the countries in the Arab Middle East have the requisite level of civil society, institutions, middle class, political culture, level of socioeconomic development, and proximity to other developed democracies (the mentoring factor) to support democracy. Reviewing the literature on democracy and development, the author systematically assesses the Arab Middle East in light of its democratic prospects. His prognosis is pessimistic—at least in the short run. He also distinguishes between countries at different levels of development. As for U.S. policy, the author recommends greater realism and less romance and wishful thinking." READ MORE

Was the Arab Spring Worth It? Hussein Ibish, Foreign Policy, July-August 2012, var. pages. "Last year's Arab revolutions captured the world's imagination as they toppled dictators from Tunis to Sanaa. But what they haven't yet done is make life measurably better for the people throwing off the tyrant's yoke. The price of freedom may be incalculable, but it seems equally hard to tally up the very real costs of the so-called Arab Spring. How many have died or been displaced in these conflicts? How have they affected economies and standards of living? Have they made their societies more or less stable? A look at the numbers so far makes for grim accounting." READ MORE

After the Spring: A White Paper on the Findings of the ASDA’A Burson-Marsteller Arab Youth Survey 2012, var. pages. "For the 2012 survey, we spoke to the region’s youth one year after the start of these dramatic events that began in Tunisia, one of the two new countries, along with Libya, we introduced to this year’s survey. We have thus themed this year’s survey, “After the Spring.” In the wake of this period of incredible change, the findings of the ASDA’A Burson-Marsteller Arab Youth Survey 2012 reveal that young people in the Middle East are now less concerned about greater political participation – although that is still important to them. Today, however, the top priorities for young people in the Arab world are earning a fair wage and owning their own home." READ MORE

The Many Faces of Islamist Politicking. Camille Pecastaing, Policy Review, June 1, 2012, var. pages. "Much has been made of the recent success of Islamist parties in national elections that followed the Arab Spring. While some praise Islamism as the first genuine expression of popular sovereignty in a long time, others warn of an Islamic winter. They read Islamist candidates as a fifth column for a fundamentalist theocracy, or at best for an illiberal democracy where individual liberties suffer under the overbearing presence of religion in the public sphere. Both readings are wrong because history is not yet written, and the Islamists know no better than anyone where their recent success might take them. And while their ascent appears almost universal — they are now in government in many Arab countries — their accession to the highest levels of power has been contextual. Starting from common origins, they followed different routes to get there. More than anything, what they showed over the decades in the wilderness was pragmatism and adaptability to challenging environments, characteristics that they will have to draw upon to move from the conquest to the exercise of power in the post–Arab Spring era." READ MORE

Political Science and the New Arab Public Sphere. Marc Lynch, Transformations of the Public Sphere, Social Science Research Council, June 2012, var. pages. "The new Arab public sphere is more than a driver of change on the ground or a source of new information for scholars, however. It also offers profound new opportunities to engage with scholars, activists, and ordinary citizens from the Arab world, allowing them to enter into Western public spheres on their own terms. This should profoundly undermine traditions of privileged Western academic or journalistic interlocutors speaking on behalf of their subjects. These Arab voices are actively debating their own political identities and strategies, not only on Facebook but in an ever more diverse and contentious political press (online and offline), on satellite television, and in proliferating sites of political and social contention. Those encounters may prove unsettling, as they expose deep resentments of Western privilege, deep political critiques and challenges to claimed expertise. What do American scholars uniquely contribute to the study of Arab politics compared with Arab scholars and political analysts?" READ MORE

Iran

Iran after Ahmadinejad. Banafsheh Keynoush, Survival, June/July 2012, pp. 127-146. "Power struggles and political fragmentation have been endemic to the Islamic Republic of Iran since its founding in 1979. But although internal division may weaken the state, it is unlikely to break it. The multiple pillars of power in the Iranian republic protect it from sudden collapse. Loyalties can easily shift from one pillar to the next, allowing for the emergence of new political identities. Elections in particular – there have been 28 since the 1979 revolution – are a significant catalyst for such changes. The presidential election scheduled for June 2013, which will mark the end of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's second and final four-year term, is unlikely to be very different. Already, the Iranian state has started a modest reinvention of itself as it seeks to transform its image. READ MORE

How to Defuse Iran’s Nuclear Threat: Bolster Diplomacy, Israeli Security, and the Iranian Citizenry. James Dobbins, Dalia Dassa Kaye, Alireza Nader, and Frederic Wehrey, RAND Review, Spring 2012, var. pages. "Our cover story discusses how the United States should address the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran, and an accompanying sidebar shows how trends in word usage on Twitter correlated with the protests surrounding the 2009 Iranian presidential election." READ MORE

To Keep the Peace with Iran, Threaten to Strike. Michael Singh, The Washington Quarterly, Spring 2012, pp. 55-69. "Across Europe, countries are passing laws requiring foreign spouses to possess language skills before joining their husbands or wives—creating ever more challenging barriers. James Angelos details the challenges facing Europe’s marriage immigrants, showing how these linguistic hurdles break families apart and alienate migrants in their new homes." READ MORE

Foreign Policy

Head of State. Hillary Clinton, the blind dissident, and the art of diplomacy in the Twitter era. Susan B. Glasser, Foreign Policy, July/August 2012, var. pp.   Secretary of State Hillary Clinton sat down on a plush yellow couch at the J.W. Marriott late on a Saturday morning in early May. The Beijing skyline sparkled, uncharacteristically sunny and smog-free, out the window of her 23rd-floor suite, and she was wearing sunglasses even though we were indoors, "an eye infection," she said apologetically. Clinton seemed surprisingly upbeat, especially considering that just a day earlier, she had come uncomfortably close to a major public rebuff by the Chinese -- much closer, in fact, than anyone yet realized. "It was a standoff," she told me, "for 24 difficult hours." READ MORE

A Foreign-Policy President. George Packer, NewYorker, June 12, 2012, var. pages. "George Packer analyzes the 2012 presidential election and Obama's main strategies to face up Romney. He suggests that whether Obama wins or loses, he will principally be remembered for his foreign-policy achievements." READ MORE

How Obama and Romney Differ—and Don't—on Foreign Policy. Yochi J. Dreazen, The Atlantic, June 8, 2012, var. pages. "Charting out the 2012 U.S. presidential contenders on Iran, Afghanistan, the military, and the world ahead. National-security and foreign-policy issues are taking a clear backseat to the economy in this year's presidential election. That's a shame, because the candidates offer voters clear choices on issues like the size of the armed forces and whether the U.S. should go it alone in dealing with Syria. At the same time, there is little daylight between them on the two most important national-security questions of the moment: the pace of the troop drawdown in Afghanistan and how far Washington should go to restrain Iran's nuclear ambitions." READ MORE

EU issues

U.S.–European Relations in the “Greater” Middle East. Robert E. Hunter, American Foreign Policy Interests, June 2012, pp. 125-133. Despite the U.S. “pivot to Asia,” it will remain deeply engaged in both Europe and the Middle East. But it must begin treating the latter region as a whole, not as a series of disparate parts; revisit its policies to Israel–Palestine negotiations and Iran; and lead in creating a viable security structure for the Persian Gulf. For their part, to ensure that U.S. Asian and Middle East interests do not lead America to radically decrease its security “footprint” in Europe—especially in “managing” Russia's future, its North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies must accept the terms of a new “transatlantic bargain”: accepting added responsibilities in North Africa and the Middle East, at times beyond judgments of their national interests. They must also join the United States in developing a new Atlantic Compact, a new Persian Gulf security structure, and a much more cooperative relationship between NATO and the European Union. READ MORE

Geo-economics and Strategy, Sanjaya Baru, Survival, June/July 2012, pp. 47-58. "Geo-economics may be defined in two different ways: as the relationship between economic policy and changes in national power and geopolitics (in other words, the geopolitical consequences of economic phenomena); or as the economic consequences of trends in geopolitics and national power. Both the notion that ‘trade follows the flag’ (that the projection of national power has economic consequences) and that ‘the flag follows trade’ (that there are geopolitical consequences of essentially economic phenomena) point to the subject matter of geo-economics.(...) In the 1980s, the rise of Japan elicited mercantilist responses from Europe and the United States based on fears that Japan itself was rising on the back of mercantilism. Today, economic crises in Europe and North America are once again reviving latent mercantilism, with many accusing Germany and the United States of pursuing a mercantilist agenda." READ MORE

12 Signs of the Europocalypse. Douglas A. Rediker and David F. Gordon, Foreign Policy, June 12, 2012, var. pages. "From the Chinese buying spree to the rise of extremism, Foreign Policy lays out what to watch for as the continent teeters on the brink of disaster." READ MORE

Passing the Test. James Angelos, World Policy Journal, Spring 2012, var. pages. "Across Europe, countries are passing laws requiring foreign spouses to possess language skills before joining their husbands or wives—creating ever more challenging barriers. James Angelos details the challenges facing Europe’s marriage immigrants, showing how these linguistic hurdles break families apart and alienate migrants in their new homes." READ MORE

Energy & Climate

Crude Oil Is Not Fungible, Where It Comes from Does Matter, and Global Markets Are More Fragmented Than Many Think. Jonathan Chanis, American Foreign Policy Interests, June 2012, pp. 144-148. In studying petroleum issues, some analysts tend to overestimate the role of markets in promoting U.S. energy security. In particular, these analysts assume that crude oil moves internationally as if it were traded in a “free market.” They often repeat phrases such as “oil always moves to the highest bidder,” or “oil is fungible and where it comes from does not matter.” But global petroleum markets are not “free.” They are severely constrained by many factors, including logistical limitations, increasingly non-interchangeable types of crude oil, and limitations on where companies can produce oil and to whom they can sell it. Most important, the markets for petroleum are distorted by the practices of Saudi Arabia and the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). A misunderstanding of the above factors can lead to, among other misconceptions, an underestimation of the role of Canada in promoting U.S. energy security and an exaggeration of the ability of markets to protect consumer or U.S. national interests, both before and after supply disruptions. A more realistic understanding would recognize the imperfect hold markets have on global crude oil allocation and would stop confusing the theory of “free markets” with the reality of international politics and oligopoly.  READ MORE

Think Again: The American Energy Boom. Michael Levi, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2012, var. pages. "Yes, oil and gas made in the USA is surging. But does that really liberate us from the Middle East? READ MORE

U.S. Issues

Left, Right, and Science. Christopher Clausen, Wilson Quarterly, Spring 2012, var. pages. "Liberals and conservatives alike wrap groupthink in the cloak of science whenever convenient. The results are seldom good. When Barack Obama promised in his 2009 inaugural address that 'we will restore science to its rightful place,' he invoked not so much a debate as a set of widely shared assumptions. According to conventional wisdom, liberals and Democrats are the party of reason and science; conservatives and Republicans are the party of religion and patriotic symbols. As Drew Westen, a psychotherapist, recently expressed it in a New York Times op-ed, 'Whereas Democrats have carried forward the belief in the role of science and knowledge in improving our lives, Republicans have moved in increasingly anti-intellectual directions.' This way of stating the division, needless to say, is itself liberal and Democratic. While many conservatives (with notable exceptions) agree that religion is an important source of beliefs and public policies, probably few consider themselves anti-intellectual. Yet the impression that the physical and social sciences are to liberalism what religion is to conservatism goes mostly unquestioned on either side. Conservatives complain about a liberal war on Christian values and faith in general, Democrats about a Republican war on science." READ MORE

A Manifesto at 50. Daniel Akst, Wilson Quarterly, Spring 2012, var. pages. The Port Huron Statement launched America’s New Left in 1962. Today it seems naive and in some ways misguided—yet it raised questions that still agitate Americans today. 'We are people of this generation, bred in at least modest comfort, housed now in universities, looking uncomfortably to the world we inherit.' So begins the audacious manifesto known as the Port Huron Statement, the product of 60 idealistic young Americans who traveled in June 1962 to a retreat at the base of Lake Huron to hash out their beliefs about social change. The conferees were serious sorts, conventionally dressed middle-class overachievers from good colleges, mostly, meeting at the height of the optimism prevailing during the Kennedy years. READ MORE

It's Worse Than You Think: Halftime Between Two Lost Decades. Jack A. Goldstone, The Atlantic, July 2012, var. pages. "The recovery feels extraordinarily slow because we face an extraordinary three-part crisis: a financial shock compounded by a global slowdown and a demographic time bomb. We're only past part two. Time to think big." READ MORE